主题: 回复： 黄祖耀：此次金融风暴是他从业48年以来最恶劣一次 31/12/2008, 8:38 am
所以投资最大的问题就是 － 你得知道在泡沫爆炸以前套现。
还有，你得知道在泡沫产生的时候保持冷静，不要跟风去买那些超过基本面的价值的投资产品。
当然最狠的是，你手上有现金，知道什么时候进场去拣便宜货。
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主题: 回复： 黄祖耀：此次金融风暴是他从业48年以来最恶劣一次 31/12/2008, 8:39 am
次贷，sub prime mortgage, 其实就是美国的金融业为了本身的业绩，拼命的把钱借给那些还款能力有问题的客户 － 就是 sub prime。照理说这样的客户是不应该得到高额的贷款的。但是当房地产泡沫兴起的时候，买方贷款买房子，房子升值，能够还贷款还能赚钱。大家都高兴。所以银行的贷款公司，尤其是那些被认为有政府在后面保证的贷款公司 － fannie mae 和 freddie mae，就不管三七二十一的贷了。
那买这些CDO的人难道是傻瓜吗？也不是。因为当你把很多的高风险投资平均分配以后，风险看起来就没那么高了。但因为是sub prime ， 利息的回报还是很高的。比放银行好多了。再说，这些CDO我现在买了，等泡沫破以前我再卖掉，不就没事了吗？再说CDO是很多的贷款的打包，有高风险的，有中风险的。平均起来其实也没那么高风险。
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks skidded Monday, with the Dow slumping nearly 778 points, in the biggest single-day point loss ever, after the House rejected the government's $700 billion bank bailout plan.
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主题: 回复： 黄祖耀：此次金融风暴是他从业48年以来最恶劣一次 31/12/2008, 8:57 am
US House of Representatives rejects US$700b bailout bill
Posted: 30 September 2008 0228 hrs
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi addresses the media on Capitol Hill in Washington.
WASHINGTON: The US House of Representatives on Monday dramatically rejected a 700-billion-dollar Wall Street bailout, sending stocks crashing to their worst single day loss ever and deepening the US financial crisis.
As a palpable sense of fear ricocheted through Washington, President George W. Bush said he was "disappointed" that the bailout foundered, as Democrats accused Republican conservatives of killing the bill for ideological reasons.
The president immediately summoned top advisers to tackle the latest crisis "head on," and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was seen hurrying into the West Wing of the White House.
Shockwaves reverberated through the presidential race and congressional campaigns just five weeks before the November 4 general election, and a blame game erupted between Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill.
Amid panic selling on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 770.59 votes (6.92 percent) and the Nasdaq crashed 199.61 points (9.14 percent).
In scenes of suspense, tension and shock rarely seen on the House floor, Republican foes of the bill and rebel Democrats combined to doom the bill by 228 votes to 205, after Bush had pleaded for its passage.
House speaker Nancy Pelosi pledged to go back to work to pass a new bill, but a senior Democratic lawmaker said nothing would happen until at least Thursday as many members had gone home for the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah.
The 15-minute vote was kept open for 40 minutes as Democratic and Republican leaders made desperate attempts to twist arms of lawmakers who voted no.
One senior Democrat said Republicans had reneged on a pledge to get 50 percent of their caucus plus one member to vote for the bailout, pointing out that 60 percent of Democrats backed the plan.
Leading Democrat David Obey reacted bitterly, saying Republican leadership, including the president and Republican presidential nominee John McCain, "have lost total control over their own party."
"Evidently some of those guys would rather lose an economy than lose an election."
House Republican Leader John Boehner blamed what he called a partisan speech to the House by Pelosi shortly before the vote.
"I don't know that we know the path forward from this point. We need everybody to calm down and relax and get back to work."
But Barney Frank, the top House Democrat in charge of negotiating the bill, dismissed such critics of Pelosi's speech as pure "pettiness" and said Republicans were trying to cover up their embarrassment over the split party.
"Give me those 12 people's names and I will go talk uncharacteristically nicely to them," he said.
Democratic White House hopeful Barack Obama meanwhile appealed for calm, seeking to stablise global markets and show composure-in-a-crisis leadership credentials.
"I'm confident that we're going to get there but it's going to be a little rocky," he said in Colorado.
"It's important for the markets to stay calm because things are never smooth in Congress and to understand that it will get done," Obama said.
There was no immediate reaction from McCain, who had boasted that he had helped bring the rebel Republicans along to vote for the deal.
But his economic advisor Doug Holz-Eakin blamed Obama for politicising the situation - an identical charge McCain critics threw at the Arizona senator last week after he injected himself into the process.
"Barack Obama failed to lead, phoned it in, attacked John McCain and refused to even say if he supported the bill," Eakin said.
Republican Congressman Paul Broun from Georgia compared the bill to a "huge cow patty with a marshmallow stuck in the middle of it."
Indiana Congressman Mike Pence, also a Republican, warned that the bailout ran counter to the principles of American government.
"Economic freedom means the freedom to succeed and the freedom to fail," he said.
The bailout proposal would grant the Treasury secretary authority to buy up toxic mortgage-related assets in troubled banks in hopes of easing the flow of credit and reviving the moribund housing market.
The bill would have immediately released 250 billion dollars to enable the government to buy up troubled assets, and sets a ceiling for all purchases of 700 billion dollars.
It also prohibits "golden parachutes" for CEOs or other executives who lose or leave their jobs at companies participating in the plan as long as the Treasury holds equity in those firms. - AFP/de
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主题: 回复： 黄祖耀：此次金融风暴是他从业48年以来最恶劣一次 31/12/2008, 8:59 am
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